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Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 12:00

Sichuan Jiuniu

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

SHANGHAI SIPG

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.3%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.7%1-110.7%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.7%3-15.2%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.3%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 34.5% 2.90 +23.3%

Draw 23.1% 27.0% 3.70 -8.7%

Away win 34.4% 47.6% 2.10 -27.8%

Over 2.5 59.8% 66.7% 1.50 -10.3%

Over 3.5 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

BTTS 60.8% 70.4% 1.42 -13.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 57.1% 1.75 -28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sichuan Jiuniu1.7

SHANGHAI SIPG1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SICHUAN JIUNIU · PPG 1.67

SHANGHAI SIPG · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sichuan Jiuniu (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +23.3%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.7%

SHANGHAI SIPG (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sichuan Jiuniu face SHANGHAI SIPG in China - Super League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 43% chance, the draw 23% and SHANGHAI SIPG 34%, so Sichuan Jiuniu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.4 for SHANGHAI SIPG (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.25 for SHANGHAI SIPG. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Sichuan Jiuniu vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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