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Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 11:35

Shanghai Shenhua

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Shandong Luneng

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.9%0-22.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.9%1-17.2%1-25.3%1-32.6%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.9%3-17.1%3-25.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-17.8%4+-25.7%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 58.5% 1.71 -9.5%

Draw 20.7% 23.3% 4.30 -6.6%

Away win 26.4% 27.0% 3.70 -1.4%

Over 2.5 68.2% 78.1% 1.28 -12.7%

Over 3.5 48.2% 58.8% 1.70 -18.1%

BTTS 63.1% 78.1% 1.28 -19.2%

Home O1.5 65.8% 72.5% 1.38 -9.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 51.3% 1.95 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 5.3%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Shenhua2.4

Shandong Luneng1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI SHENHUA · PPG 1.67

SHANDONG LUNENG · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Shenhua (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -9.5%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -6.6%

Shandong Luneng (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Shenhua face Shandong Luneng in China - Super League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Shandong Luneng 26%, so Shanghai Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.5 for Shandong Luneng (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Shandong Luneng. This match finished 2-3.

Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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