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Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 11:35

Dalian Zhixing

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.5%0-25.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.7%1-110.5%1-28.3%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.4%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 35.5% 2.82 +6.6%

Draw 23.1% 26.3% 3.80 -7.3%

Away win 39.2% 47.2% 2.12 -16.9%

Over 2.5 62.3% 70.4% 1.42 -11.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 47.6% 2.10 -17.5%

BTTS 62.4% 73.5% 1.36 -15.1%

Home O1.5 48.6% 51.3% 1.95 -5.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 58.8% 1.70 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.4%

A 39% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dalian Zhixing1.6

Beijing Guoan1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DALIAN ZHIXING · PPG 2.18

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dalian Zhixing (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV +6.6%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.3%

Beijing Guoan (A) 39.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -16.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dalian Zhixing face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dalian Zhixing a 38% chance, the draw 23% and Beijing Guoan 39%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dalian Zhixing and 1.6 for Beijing Guoan (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dalian Zhixing are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 1.73 for Beijing Guoan. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Dalian Zhixing vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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