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Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 12:00

Henan Jianye

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Chongqing Tongliang Long

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-19.8%0-24.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.5%1-112.8%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.3%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 62.1% 1.61 -25.5%

Draw 27.0% 26.7% 3.75 +0.8%

Away win 26.7% 20.0% 5.00 +20.1%

Over 2.5 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 49.4% 55.6% 1.80 -11.1%

Home O1.5 37.2% 57.8% 1.73 -35.6%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.3% 3.80 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.4%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1✓ 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Henan Jianye1.3

Chongqing Tongliang Long0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HENAN JIANYE · PPG 1.36

CHONGQING TONGLIANG LONG · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Henan Jianye (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.61 · IMPLIED 62.1% EV -25.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.8%

Chongqing Tongliang Long (A) 26.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan Jianye face Chongqing Tongliang Long in China - Super League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan Jianye a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 27%, so Henan Jianye are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Henan Jianye and 0.8 for Chongqing Tongliang Long (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan Jianye are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.08 for Chongqing Tongliang Long. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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