Today / China - Super League / Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye

Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 11:00

Shenyang Urban

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Henan Jianye

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.7%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.5%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 35.7% 2.80 +33.6%

Draw 24.8% 30.8% 3.25 -11.6%

Away win 27.5% 43.5% 2.30 -22.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

BTTS 54.7% 63.7% 1.57 -14.1%

Home O1.5 45.3% 44.4% 2.25 +1.9%

Away O1.5 35.4% 50.0% 2.00 -29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenyang Urban1.6

Henan Jianye1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENYANG URBAN · PPG 1.50

HENAN JIANYE · PPG 1.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.47 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Shenyang Urban (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +33.6%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.6%

Henan Jianye (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenyang Urban face Henan Jianye in China - Super League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenyang Urban a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Henan Jianye 28%, so Shenyang Urban are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Shenyang Urban and 1.1 for Henan Jianye (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenyang Urban are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.27 for Henan Jianye. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 4-4.

Shenyang Urban vs Henan Jianye Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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