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RSD Alcala vs R. Vallecano B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 logo Spain flag Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Group 5 - 32 Estadio Municipal Virgen del Val· Alcalá de Henares Sunday, April 19, 2026 10:00
RSD Alcala logo RSD Alcala PPG 2.20
3-0 HIT CS3
R. Vallecano B logo R. Vallecano B PPG 0.47
Home· +8.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
68% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

RSD Alcala face R. Vallecano B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RSD Alcala a 75% chance, the draw 17% and R. Vallecano B 9%, so RSD Alcala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for RSD Alcala and 0.7 for R. Vallecano B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RSD Alcala are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.47 for R. Vallecano B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 74.7%
Odds: 1.45 EV: +8.3%
Draw 16.5%
Odds: 3.95 EV: -34.8%
Away 8.8%
Odds: 5.60 EV: -50.7%
Model lean: Home
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 56.7% Odds: 1.65 -6.5%
Over 3.5 34.3% Odds: —
BTTS 43.1% Odds: —
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-0
3rd 3-0
4th 2-1
5th 1-1

Expected Goals (xG)

RSD Alcala
2.31
R. Vallecano B
0.65

Model Suggestion

Home +8.3% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

League Track Record

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%
O2.5/Under 45%
BTTS/No 50%
Score Hit 55%
ROI -32.6%
Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
68%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.47) - Strong consensus

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