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RSD Alcala vs R. Vallecano B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

RSD Alcala

PPG 2.20 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

R. Vallecano B

PPG 0.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-13.4%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.0%1-17.8%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.6%3-16.9%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-16.9%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.7% 69.0% 1.45 +8.3%

Draw 16.5% 25.3% 3.95 -34.8%

Away win 8.8% 17.9% 5.60 -50.7%

Over 2.5 56.7% 60.6% 1.65 -6.5%

Over 3.5 34.3% — — —

BTTS 43.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.1%

H 75% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 3–0✓ 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 1–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RSD Alcala2.3

R. Vallecano B0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RSD ALCALA · PPG 2.20

R. VALLECANO B · PPG 0.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.47) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

RSD Alcala (H) 74.7%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV +8.3%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -34.8%

R. Vallecano B (A) 8.8%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -50.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

RSD Alcala face R. Vallecano B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RSD Alcala a 75% chance, the draw 17% and R. Vallecano B 9%, so RSD Alcala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for RSD Alcala and 0.7 for R. Vallecano B (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RSD Alcala are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.47 for R. Vallecano B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 3-0.

RSD Alcala vs R. Vallecano B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions