Today / China - Super League / Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren

Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren Prediction— China - Super League

Friday, July 17, 2026

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Liaoning Tieren

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.1%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.1%1-18.9%1-24.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.2%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-16.6%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 20.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 41.1% — — —

BTTS 62.4% — — —

Home O1.5 62.9% — — —

Away O1.5 36.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.4%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan2.2

Liaoning Tieren1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.56

LIAONING TIEREN · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.56) vs P(Home)=57.5%

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 57.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Liaoning Tieren (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Liaoning Tieren in China - Super League on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Liaoning Tieren 20%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Beijing Guoan and 1.1 for Liaoning Tieren (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.63 for Liaoning Tieren.

Beijing Guoan vs Liaoning Tieren Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - Super League Predictions