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Shanghai Port vs Dalian Yingbo Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 11:35

Shanghai Port

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dalian Yingbo

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.5%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.1%1-18.2%1-24.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.5%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-17.5%4+-24.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 50.8% 1.97 +10.3%

Draw 21.9% 29.9% 3.35 -16.0%

Away win 22.1% 28.6% 3.50 -13.6%

Over 2.5 66.4% 64.5% 1.55 +2.9%

Over 3.5 42.5% 42.0% 2.38 +1.1%

BTTS 62.4% 69.0% 1.45 -9.5%

Home O1.5 62.5% 57.8% 1.73 +8.1%

Away O1.5 35.7% 42.6% 2.35 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 27%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.4%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Port2.3

Dalian Yingbo1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI PORT · PPG 1.50

DALIAN YINGBO · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Port (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +10.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -16.0%

Dalian Yingbo (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Port face Dalian Yingbo in China - Super League on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Port a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Dalian Yingbo 22%, so Shanghai Port are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Shanghai Port and 1.2 for Dalian Yingbo (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Port are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.88 for Dalian Yingbo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.9%.

Shanghai Port vs Dalian Yingbo Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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