Navalcarnero vs Conquense Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Group 5 - 32 Estadio Municipal Mariano González· Navalcarnero Sunday, April 19, 2026 10:00

Navalcarnero PPG 2.07

2-0 MISS

Conquense PPG 1.33

Home· -6.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Navalcarnero face Conquense in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Navalcarnero a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Conquense 34%, so Navalcarnero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Navalcarnero and 1.1 for Conquense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Navalcarnero are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.33 for Conquense. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 37.4%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -6.5%

Draw 29.1%

Odds: 2.95 EV: -14.1%

Away 33.5%

Odds: 2.65 EV: -11.2%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 37.9% Odds: 2.15 -18.5%

Over 3.5 18.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 44.6% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Navalcarnero

1.14

Conquense

1.06

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)