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Navalcarnero vs Conquense Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

Navalcarnero

PPG 2.07 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Conquense

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-111.7%0-26.2%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.6%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.2%2-17.6%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.7%3-12.9%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 40.0% 2.50 -6.5%

Draw 29.1% 33.9% 2.95 -14.1%

Away win 33.5% 37.7% 2.65 -11.2%

Over 2.5 37.9% 46.5% 2.15 -18.5%

Over 3.5 18.2% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob44.6%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 0–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Navalcarnero1.1

Conquense1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NAVALCARNERO · PPG 2.07

CONQUENSE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Navalcarnero (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -6.5%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -14.1%

Conquense (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Navalcarnero face Conquense in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Navalcarnero a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Conquense 34%, so Navalcarnero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Navalcarnero and 1.1 for Conquense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Navalcarnero are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.33 for Conquense. This match finished 2-0.

Navalcarnero vs Conquense Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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