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Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 07:00

Moreton City Excelsior

PPG 2.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

UPCOMING

Gold Coast Knights

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.3%0-23.0%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.0%1-17.3%1-26.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.2%3-15.8%3-25.2%3-33.2%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.3%4+-24.8%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 51.3% 1.95 -14.6%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 34.5% 33.3% 3.00 +3.5%

Over 2.5 68.2% 72.5% 1.38 -5.9%

Over 3.5 45.0% 51.3% 1.95 -12.3%

BTTS 63.1% 74.1% 1.35 -14.8%

Home O1.5 65.7% 63.7% 1.57 +3.1%

Away O1.5 49.3% 51.3% 1.95 -3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.1%

H 44% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreton City Excelsior2.2

Gold Coast Knights1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MORETON CITY EXCELSIOR · PPG 2.09

GOLD COAST KNIGHTS · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Moreton City Excelsior (H) 43.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -14.6%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

Gold Coast Knights (A) 34.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreton City Excelsior face Gold Coast Knights in Australia - NPL Queensland on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreton City Excelsior a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Gold Coast Knights 35%, so Moreton City Excelsior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Moreton City Excelsior and 1.8 for Gold Coast Knights (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreton City Excelsior are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.45 for Gold Coast Knights. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.5%.

Moreton City Excelsior vs Gold Coast Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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