Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / George Cross vs Melbourne C. B

George Cross vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Saturday, July 18, 2026

George Cross

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Melbourne C. B

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.7%0-28.6%0-35.1%0-4+3.4%1 1-06.2%1-111.0%1-29.7%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.5%2-16.2%2-25.5%2-33.3%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 52.0% — — —

Over 2.5 60.9% — — —

Over 3.5 37.4% — — —

BTTS 55.5% — — —

Home O1.5 35.6% — — —

Away O1.5 50.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -7.5%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob55.5%

A 52% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

George Cross1.1

Melbourne C. B1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GEORGE CROSS · PPG 1.30

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

George Cross (H) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Melbourne C. B (A) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

George Cross face Melbourne C. B in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, July 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives George Cross a 24% chance, the draw 24% and Melbourne C. B 52%, so Melbourne C. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for George Cross and 1.8 for Melbourne C. B (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, George Cross are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 2.00 for Melbourne C. B.

George Cross vs Melbourne C. B Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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