Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Dandenong T. vs Bentleigh G.

Dandenong T. vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 07:00

Dandenong T.

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bentleigh G.

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.9%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.5%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.9%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 27.8% 3.60 +74.2%

Draw 24.0% 27.0% 3.70 -6.7%

Away win 27.6% 55.6% 1.80 -30.2%

Over 2.5 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Over 3.5 37.5% 40.0% 2.50 -6.3%

BTTS 60.3% 64.5% 1.55 -6.5%

Home O1.5 52.5% 39.2% 2.55 +33.9%

Away O1.5 35.7% 59.9% 1.67 -40.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.3%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong T.1.7

Bentleigh G.1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG T. · PPG 0.67

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 0.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong T. (H) 48.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +74.2%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.7%

Bentleigh G. (A) 27.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -30.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong T. face Bentleigh G. in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong T. a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Bentleigh G. 28%, so Dandenong T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Dandenong T. and 1.1 for Bentleigh G. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong T. are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.50 for Bentleigh G.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +74.2%.

Dandenong T. vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL Victoria Predictions