Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Bentleigh G. vs Dandenong City

Bentleigh G. vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 09:30

Bentleigh G.

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dandenong City

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-110.5%0-28.6%0-34.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.0%2-16.5%2-25.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.5%3-12.4%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.8% 27.4% 3.65 +0.9%

Draw 25.9% 27.4% 3.65 -3.3%

Away win 46.3% 55.6% 1.80 -16.7%

Over 2.5 54.1% 56.5% 1.77 -4.2%

Over 3.5 33.2% 33.9% 2.95 -2.1%

BTTS 55.5% 59.9% 1.67 -7.3%

Home O1.5 35.6% 34.5% 2.90 +3.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 55.6% 1.80 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.5%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bentleigh G.1.1

Dandenong City1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 1.09

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.09), Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Bentleigh G. (H) 27.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.9%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -3.3%

Dandenong City (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -16.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bentleigh G. face Dandenong City in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bentleigh G. a 28% chance, the draw 26% and Dandenong City 46%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bentleigh G. and 1.6 for Dandenong City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bentleigh G. are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.89 for Dandenong City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +3.2%.

Bentleigh G. vs Dandenong City Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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