Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / St. Albans vs George Cross

St. Albans vs George Cross Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 05:00

St. Albans

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

George Cross

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.7%0-28.4%0-34.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.3%2-16.7%2-25.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 48.8% 2.05 -35.2%

Draw 25.3% 28.2% 3.55 -6.1%

Away win 43.1% 33.3% 3.00 +29.3%

Over 2.5 54.0% 60.6% 1.65 -10.9%

Over 3.5 32.9% 38.5% 2.60 -14.5%

BTTS 55.6% 65.4% 1.53 -14.9%

Home O1.5 35.9% 54.6% 1.83 -34.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 43.5% 2.30 +15.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.6%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans1.1

George Cross1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.11

GEORGE CROSS · PPG 1.44

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.11) vs Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -35.2%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.1%

George Cross (A) 43.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans face George Cross in Australia - NPL Victoria on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans a 32% chance, the draw 25% and George Cross 43%, so George Cross are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for St. Albans and 1.6 for George Cross (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.44 for George Cross. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.3%.

St. Albans vs George Cross Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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