Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / Melbourne C. B vs Heidelberg Utd

Melbourne C. B vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne C. B

PPG 1.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heidelberg Utd

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.6%0-24.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.8%1-111.8%1-27.1%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.2%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.0%3-14.8%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 23.8% 4.20 +103.3%

Draw 24.7% 24.4% 4.10 +0.8%

Away win 26.8% 61.7% 1.62 -34.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 69.0% 1.45 -21.7%

Over 3.5 32.9% 46.5% 2.15 -29.3%

BTTS 55.6% 67.6% 1.48 -17.7%

Home O1.5 45.9% 39.2% 2.55 +17.0%

Away O1.5 38.4% 67.6% 1.48 -43.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -8.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne C. B1.6

Heidelberg Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.13

HEIDELBERG UTD · PPG 1.78

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.78) strong but model favors Home (P=48.4%)

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne C. B (H) 48.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +103.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.8%

Heidelberg Utd (A) 26.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne C. B face Heidelberg Utd in Australia - NPL Victoria on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne C. B a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Heidelberg Utd 27%, so Melbourne C. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Melbourne C. B and 1.2 for Heidelberg Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne C. B are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.78 for Heidelberg Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +103.3%.

Melbourne C. B vs Heidelberg Utd Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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