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Green Gully vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Altona Magic

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-111.8%0-29.3%0-34.9%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.5%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-03.8%2-16.1%2-24.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 41.7% 2.40 -22.2%

Draw 25.0% 29.0% 3.45 -8.3%

Away win 42.6% 39.2% 2.55 +8.6%

Over 2.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Over 3.5 32.9% 36.4% 2.75 -9.5%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 35.9% 47.6% 2.10 -24.6%

Away O1.5 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.4%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully1.0

Altona Magic1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.44

ALTONA MAGIC · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 32.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -22.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.3%

Altona Magic (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Altona Magic in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Altona Magic 43%, so Altona Magic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Green Gully and 1.6 for Altona Magic (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.33 for Altona Magic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.6%.

Green Gully vs Altona Magic Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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