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Green Gully vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 21 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 09:30

Green Gully

PPG 0.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dandenong T.

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-19.1%0-26.8%0-33.4%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.9%1-111.8%1-28.9%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.1%2-17.7%2-25.8%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.2%3-13.4%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 57.8% 1.73 -33.1%

Draw 25.7% 26.7% 3.75 -2.2%

Away win 35.7% 25.0% 4.00 +42.8%

Over 2.5 55.6% 60.6% 1.65 -8.3%

Over 3.5 34.8% 38.5% 2.60 -9.5%

BTTS 58.2% 63.7% 1.57 -8.6%

Home O1.5 41.1% 60.6% 1.65 -32.2%

Away O1.5 50.2% 35.7% 2.80 +40.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.2%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Green Gully1.3

Dandenong T.1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GREEN GULLY · PPG 0.40

DANDENONG T. · PPG 0.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.40), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Green Gully (H) 38.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -33.1%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -2.2%

Dandenong T. (A) 35.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +42.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Green Gully face Dandenong T. in Australia - NPL Victoria on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Green Gully a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Dandenong T. 36%, so Green Gully are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Green Gully and 1.5 for Dandenong T. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Green Gully are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 0.60 for Dandenong T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.8%.

Green Gully vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Match Preview & Prediction

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