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Intercity vs Quintanar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Group 5 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

Intercity

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Quintanar

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.2%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.8%1-111.0%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 54.1% 1.85 +6.0%

Draw 23.2% 31.3% 3.20 -25.8%

Away win 19.5% 26.3% 3.80 -25.9%

Over 2.5 50.8% 48.8% 2.05 +4.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 50.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.4%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 11.0%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Intercity1.8

Quintanar0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERCITY · PPG 1.60

QUINTANAR · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=57.3%

Win probability 1X2

Intercity (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +6.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -25.8%

Quintanar (A) 19.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Intercity face Quintanar in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Intercity a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Quintanar 20%, so Intercity are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Intercity and 0.9 for Quintanar (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Intercity are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.67 for Quintanar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Intercity vs Quintanar Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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