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Peninsula vs Wynnum Wolves Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 09:30

Peninsula

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wynnum Wolves

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.6%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.4%1-16.9%1-24.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.0%2-18.9%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.8%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-19.4%4+-26.0%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 66.7% 1.50 -7.3%

Draw 19.5% 21.7% 4.60 -6.2%

Away win 18.7% 21.7% 4.60 -8.4%

Over 2.5 67.2% 78.1% 1.28 -14.0%

Over 3.5 48.1% 56.5% 1.77 -14.9%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 63.0% 76.9% 1.30 -18.1%

Away O1.5 38.4% 43.5% 2.30 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peninsula2.6

Wynnum Wolves1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PENINSULA · PPG 2.44

WYNNUM WOLVES · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=61.8%

Win probability 1X2

Peninsula (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -7.3%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -6.2%

Wynnum Wolves (A) 18.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peninsula face Wynnum Wolves in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peninsula a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Wynnum Wolves 19%, so Peninsula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Peninsula and 1.3 for Wynnum Wolves (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peninsula are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.63 for Wynnum Wolves.

Peninsula vs Wynnum Wolves Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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