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Brisbane Roar B vs Rochedale Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 09:30

Brisbane Roar B

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rochedale

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.7%0-24.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.9%1-18.7%1-27.7%1-34.6%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.8%3-15.0%3-24.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.6%4+-23.2%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 40.8% 2.45 +7.8%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -9.6%

Away win 34.2% 43.5% 2.30 -21.3%

Over 2.5 67.1% 70.4% 1.42 -4.7%

Over 3.5 44.1% 48.8% 2.05 -9.6%

BTTS 63.2% 73.5% 1.36 -14.1%

Home O1.5 55.1% 55.6% 1.80 -0.8%

Away O1.5 50.2% 57.1% 1.75 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 81%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.2%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brisbane Roar B1.9

Rochedale1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISBANE ROAR B · PPG 0.75

ROCHEDALE · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.75) > Away POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

Brisbane Roar B (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +7.8%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.6%

Rochedale (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -21.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brisbane Roar B face Rochedale in Australia - NPL Queensland on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brisbane Roar B a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Rochedale 34%, so Brisbane Roar B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Brisbane Roar B and 1.8 for Rochedale (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brisbane Roar B are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.38 for Rochedale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.8%.

Brisbane Roar B vs Rochedale Prediction— Australia - NPL Queensland

Match Preview & Prediction

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