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Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 23:00

Mirassol

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gremio

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.0%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.4%1-113.0%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.4%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.0%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 51.0% 1.96 -10.2%

Draw 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%

Away win 27.3% 26.0% 3.85 +3.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 26.3% 3.80 +6.1%

BTTS 52.4% 54.1% 1.85 -3.1%

Home O1.5 41.1% 47.6% 2.10 -13.7%

Away O1.5 24.8% 29.4% 3.40 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.4%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirassol1.3

Gremio0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRASSOL · PPG 1.33

GREMIO · PPG 0.44

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=45.8%

Win probability 1X2

Mirassol (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -10.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%

Gremio (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirassol face Gremio in Brazil - Serie A on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirassol a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Gremio 27%, so Mirassol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mirassol and 0.9 for Gremio (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirassol are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.44 for Gremio. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.1%.

Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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