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Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 23:00

Mirassol

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gremio

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.0%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.4%1-113.0%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.3%2-18.4%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.0%3-13.6%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 51.0% 1.96 -10.2%

Draw 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%

Away win 27.3% 26.0% 3.85 +3.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 29.0% 26.3% 3.80 +6.1%

BTTS 52.4% 54.1% 1.85 -3.1%

Home O1.5 41.1% 47.6% 2.10 -13.7%

Away O1.5 24.8% 29.4% 3.40 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.4%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 14.4%

#4 2–0 9.3%

#5 2–1✓ 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirassol1.3

Gremio0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRASSOL · PPG 1.33

GREMIO · PPG 0.44

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=45.8%

Win probability 1X2

Mirassol (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -10.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%

Gremio (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirassol face Gremio in Brazil - Serie A on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirassol a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Gremio 27%, so Mirassol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mirassol and 0.9 for Gremio (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirassol are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.44 for Gremio. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Mirassol vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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