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Fluminense vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 23:00

Fluminense

PPG 2.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bragantino

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+12.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.5%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-111.9%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.4%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-15.0%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 52.6% 1.90 -11.8%

Draw 25.3% 29.4% 3.40 -8.4%

Away win 28.4% 25.0% 4.00 +8.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 47.6% 2.10 +12.8%

Over 3.5 32.9% 26.3% 3.80 +25.0%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Away O1.5 36.2% 28.2% 3.55 +28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 7.1%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense1.6

Bragantino1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE · PPG 2.44

BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.44

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -11.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.4%

Bragantino (A) 28.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Bragantino in Brazil - Serie A on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Bragantino 28%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fluminense and 1.1 for Bragantino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.44 for Bragantino. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.5%.

Fluminense vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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