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Fluminense vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 19 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 23:00

Fluminense

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bragantino

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+12.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.5%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-111.9%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.4%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-15.0%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 52.6% 1.90 -11.8%

Draw 25.3% 29.4% 3.40 -8.4%

Away win 28.4% 25.0% 4.00 +8.2%

Over 2.5 53.7% 47.6% 2.10 +12.8%

Over 3.5 32.9% 26.3% 3.80 +25.0%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 48.5% 48.8% 2.05 -0.6%

Away O1.5 36.2% 28.2% 3.55 +28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 7.1%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense1.6

Bragantino1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE · PPG 2.44

BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.44

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.44) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -11.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.4%

Bragantino (A) 28.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Bragantino in Brazil - Serie A on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Bragantino 28%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Fluminense and 1.1 for Bragantino (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.44 for Bragantino. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Fluminense vs Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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