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Bahia vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 4 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 22:30

Bahia

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Chapecoense

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.6%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.1%1-18.4%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.9%3-17.3%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-17.2%4+-23.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.2% 69.0% 1.45 -11.3%

Draw 20.4% 21.7% 4.60 -3.7%

Away win 18.4% 16.1% 6.20 +8.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Over 3.5 40.1% 40.8% 2.45 -1.8%

BTTS 55.5% 58.8% 1.70 -5.7%

Home O1.5 62.9% 69.0% 1.45 -8.8%

Away O1.5 22.1% 28.2% 3.55 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.5%

H 61% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.6%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 3–0 8.9%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia2.3

Chapecoense0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA · PPG 1.44

CHAPECOENSE · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs P(Home)=61.2%

Win probability 1X2

Bahia (H) 61.2%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -11.3%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -3.7%

Chapecoense (A) 18.4%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia face Chapecoense in Brazil - Serie A on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Chapecoense 18%, so Bahia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Bahia and 0.8 for Chapecoense (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.25 for Chapecoense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Bahia vs Chapecoense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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