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Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 17:15

Bodo/Glimt

PPG 2.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Fredrikstad

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.7%1-13.1%1-21.0%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-08.8%2-15.7%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-17.1%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-026.5%4+-117.2%4+-25.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.0% 85.5% 1.17 -14.6%

Draw 17.4% 13.8% 7.25 +15.7%

Away win 9.6% 7.1% 14.00 +20.6%

Over 2.5 67.1% 78.1% 1.28 -14.1%

Over 3.5 49.1% 58.8% 1.70 -16.5%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 77.0% 87.0% 1.15 -11.5%

Away O1.5 21.2% 22.2% 4.50 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob52.6%

H 73% / xG 3.7-0.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.9%

#2 4–0 10.1%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 5–0 7.5%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bodo/Glimt3.7

Fredrikstad0.6

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BODO/GLIMT · PPG 2.40

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.40), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bodo/Glimt (H) 73.0%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -14.6%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +15.7%

Fredrikstad (A) 9.6%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bodo/Glimt face Fredrikstad in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bodo/Glimt a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Fredrikstad 10%, so Bodo/Glimt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Bodo/Glimt and 0.6 for Fredrikstad (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.67 for Fredrikstad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Bodo/Glimt vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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