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S. Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Saturday, July 11, 2026, 11:35

S. Shenhua

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

UPCOMING

Beijing Guoan

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.0%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.7%1-18.5%1-26.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.2%3-16.4%3-24.8%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.5%4+-24.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 42.0% 2.38 +18.3%

Draw 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

Away win 27.8% 36.5% 2.74 -14.3%

Over 2.5 67.2% 72.5% 1.38 -7.3%

Over 3.5 44.1% 51.8% 1.93 -14.9%

BTTS 63.2% 76.9% 1.30 -17.8%

Home O1.5 62.5% 58.8% 1.70 +6.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Shenhua2.1

Beijing Guoan1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SHENHUA · PPG 1.89

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.89) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

S. Shenhua (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +18.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.4%

Beijing Guoan (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Shenhua face Beijing Guoan in China - Super League on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Shenhua a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Beijing Guoan 28%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for S. Shenhua and 1.5 for Beijing Guoan (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Shenhua are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.50 for Beijing Guoan. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.3%.

S. Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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