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Chengdu vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 12:00

Chengdu

PPG 2.63 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Chongqing T.

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-14.8%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-19.5%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.6%2-19.4%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.9%3-16.2%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-14.8%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.9% 76.3% 1.31 -22.8%

Draw 21.8% 22.2% 4.50 -1.1%

Away win 19.3% 10.8% 9.30 +47.7%

Over 2.5 54.0% 60.6% 1.65 -10.9%

Over 3.5 32.9% 39.2% 2.55 -16.1%

BTTS 50.9% 52.6% 1.90 -3.3%

Home O1.5 55.1% 70.4% 1.42 -21.8%

Away O1.5 21.2% 20.0% 5.00 +3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob50.9%

H 59% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 1–1✓ 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chengdu2.0

Chongqing T.0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CHENGDU · PPG 2.63

CHONGQING T. · PPG 1.38

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.63) vs P(Home)=58.9%

Win probability 1X2

Chengdu (H) 58.9%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -22.8%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -1.1%

Chongqing T. (A) 19.3%

ODDS 9.30 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +47.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chengdu face Chongqing T. in China - Super League on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chengdu a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Chongqing T. 19%, so Chengdu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Chengdu and 0.7 for Chongqing T. (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chengdu are averaging 2.63 points per game versus 1.38 for Chongqing T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Chengdu vs Chongqing T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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