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Wuhan Three T. vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 11:00

Wuhan Three T.

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDW

UPCOMING

Henan SL

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.7%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.4%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-18.9%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 33.3% 3.00 +36.8%

Draw 26.4% 30.8% 3.25 -8.5%

Away win 28.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 2.5 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

BTTS 55.6% 64.5% 1.55 -13.8%

Home O1.5 43.9% 41.7% 2.40 +5.4%

Away O1.5 35.7% 51.3% 1.95 -30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuhan Three T.1.4

Henan SL1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WUHAN THREE T. · PPG 1.14

HENAN SL · PPG 1.22

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.14), Away AVERAGE (1.22)

Win probability 1X2

Wuhan Three T. (H) 45.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +36.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.5%

Henan SL (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuhan Three T. face Henan SL in China - Super League on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuhan Three T. a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Henan SL 28%, so Wuhan Three T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wuhan Three T. and 1.2 for Henan SL (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuhan Three T. are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.22 for Henan SL. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +36.8%.

Wuhan Three T. vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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