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Shenzhen vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Saturday, July 11, 2026

Shenzhen

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qingdao West C.

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.0%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.0%1-110.6%1-27.0%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.2%3-15.6%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.7%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 30.5% — — —

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 39.9% — — —

BTTS 62.4% — — —

Home O1.5 52.5% — — —

Away O1.5 38.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 26%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen1.8

Qingdao West C.1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN · PPG 1.44

QINGDAO WEST C. · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen (H) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Qingdao West C. (A) 30.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen face Qingdao West C. in China - Super League on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen a 46% chance, the draw 23% and Qingdao West C. 31%, so Shenzhen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Shenzhen and 1.3 for Qingdao West C. (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.13 for Qingdao West C..

Shenzhen vs Qingdao West C. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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