Today / Australia / Bayswater vs Sorrento

Bayswater vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 11:00

Bayswater logo
Bayswater
PPG 2.50 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Sorrento logo
Sorrento
PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.6%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.4%1-18.3%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.5%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-17.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 62.3%
Draw 20.0%
Away win 17.7%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 40.1%
BTTS 55.5%
Home O1.5 62.9%
Away O1.5 24.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.5%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%
#2 2–1 9.6%
#3 1–1 8.3%
#4 3–0 8.5%
#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayswater2.3
Sorrento0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYSWATER · PPG 2.50

SORRENTO · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=62.3%

Win probability 1X2

Bayswater (H) 62.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 20.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Sorrento (A) 17.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayswater face Sorrento in Australia on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayswater a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Sorrento 18%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Bayswater and 0.9 for Sorrento (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayswater are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.63 for Sorrento.

PredictVantage

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