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Campbelltown vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 09:30

Campbelltown

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-15.6%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.2%1-110.5%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.6%3-16.2%3-22.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Draw 24.2% 25.6% 3.90 -3.4%

Away win 21.9% 26.3% 3.80 -10.1%

Over 2.5 54.1% 65.4% 1.53 -17.2%

Over 3.5 33.2% 46.5% 2.15 -28.6%

BTTS 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Home O1.5 56.8% 63.7% 1.57 -10.8%

Away O1.5 28.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.6%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Campbelltown1.9

Adelaide Comets0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CAMPBELLTOWN · PPG 1.38

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.38) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Win probability 1X2

Campbelltown (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -10.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -3.4%

Adelaide Comets (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Campbelltown face Adelaide Comets in Australia - NPL South Australia on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Campbelltown a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Adelaide Comets 22%, so Campbelltown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Campbelltown and 0.9 for Adelaide Comets (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Campbelltown are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.50 for Adelaide Comets.

Campbelltown vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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