Today / Australia - NPL Northern NSW / Valentine vs Kahibah

Valentine vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 03:00

Valentine

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kahibah

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.5%0-26.3%0-33.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.4%1-110.7%1-29.0%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.7%2-26.4%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.7%3-23.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 48.8% 2.05 -27.6%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Away win 40.7% 34.5% 2.90 +18.0%

Over 2.5 63.4% 65.4% 1.53 -3.0%

Over 3.5 39.9% 47.6% 2.10 -16.2%

BTTS 62.4% 71.4% 1.40 -12.6%

Home O1.5 43.8% 59.5% 1.68 -26.4%

Away O1.5 50.2% 49.5% 2.02 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.4%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine1.4

Kahibah1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 0.75

KAHIBAH · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -27.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Kahibah (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Kahibah in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Kahibah 41%, so Kahibah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Valentine and 1.7 for Kahibah (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.88 for Kahibah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Valentine vs Kahibah Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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