Today / Australia / Perth SC vs Western Knights
Perth SC vs Western Knights Prediction— Australia
Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, July 17, 2026, 11:00
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
H 54% / xG 2.4-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%
Form & verdict
PERTH SC · PPG 1.71
WESTERN KNIGHTS · PPG 0.56
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.71) vs P(Home)=53.5%
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Perth SC face Western Knights in Australia on Friday, July 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth SC a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Western Knights 25%, so Perth SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Perth SC and 1.6 for Western Knights (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth SC are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.56 for Western Knights. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.5%.