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Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 19 ·Thursday, July 16, 2026, 22:30

Vitoria

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vasco da Gama

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 43.1% — a clear edge.

+26.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.7%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.2%1-111.3%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.4%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 43.1% 2.32 +26.9%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.1%

Away win 20.1% 33.6% 2.98 -24.1%

Over 2.5 52.4% 47.6% 2.10 +10.0%

Over 3.5 30.7% 26.3% 3.80 +16.7%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 53.0% 42.0% 2.38 +26.1%

Away O1.5 22.6% 35.1% 2.85 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0✓ 13.2%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitoria1.7

Vasco da Gama0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VITORIA · PPG 2.38

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=54.7%

Win probability 1X2

Vitoria (H) 54.7%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +26.9%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.1%

Vasco da Gama (A) 20.1%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitoria face Vasco da Gama in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitoria a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Vasco da Gama 20%, so Vitoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vitoria and 0.9 for Vasco da Gama (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitoria are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.50 for Vasco da Gama. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +29.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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