Today / Brazil - Serie A / Botafogo vs Santos

Botafogo vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, July 16, 2026, 22:30

Botafogo

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santos

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+22.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.8%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.7%1-17.0%1-25.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.8%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.2%3-25.3%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-18.1%4+-26.0%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 50.8% 1.97 +7.0%

Draw 22.0% 28.6% 3.50 -13.8%

Away win 23.6% 27.8% 3.60 -9.0%

Over 2.5 67.1% 54.6% 1.83 +22.8%

Over 3.5 46.6% 32.3% 3.10 +44.5%

BTTS 63.8% 58.8% 1.70 +8.5%

Home O1.5 63.5% 51.8% 1.93 +22.6%

Away O1.5 50.2% 34.7% 2.88 +44.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.0%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.8%

H 54% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo2.5

Santos1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.57

SANTOS · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=54.3%

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +7.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.8%

Santos (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo face Santos in Brazil - Serie A on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Santos 24%, so Botafogo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Botafogo and 1.5 for Santos (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.50 for Santos. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +47.0%.

Botafogo vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie A Predictions