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Valerenga vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Matchday 14 ·Thursday, July 16, 2026, 17:00

Valerenga

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Aalesund

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.0%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.9%1-111.5%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.5%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.2%3-23.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 58.8% 1.70 -21.1%

Draw 25.3% 24.4% 4.10 +2.2%

Away win 28.4% 23.8% 4.20 +11.6%

Over 2.5 60.9% 67.6% 1.48 -9.9%

Over 3.5 37.1% 45.5% 2.20 -18.4%

BTTS 57.7% 67.6% 1.48 -14.6%

Home O1.5 53.0% 65.4% 1.53 -18.9%

Away O1.5 36.2% 39.2% 2.55 -7.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga1.6

Aalesund1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA · PPG 1.67

AALESUND · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -21.1%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +2.2%

Aalesund (A) 28.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga face Aalesund in Norway - Eliteserien on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Aalesund 28%, so Valerenga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Valerenga and 1.2 for Aalesund (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Aalesund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.6%. This match finished 6-1.

Valerenga vs Aalesund Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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