Today / USA - USL Championship / Hartford A. vs Orange County

Hartford A. vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, July 8, 2026, 23:00

Hartford A.

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orange County

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-116.1%0-28.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.7%1-113.3%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.3%2-15.5%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.5%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 55.6% 1.80 -42.4%

Draw 31.3% 29.0% 3.45 +8.0%

Away win 36.7% 25.6% 3.90 +43.1%

Over 2.5 40.3% 51.3% 1.95 -21.4%

Over 3.5 22.6% 29.0% 3.45 -13.2%

BTTS 48.4% 55.6% 1.80 -12.9%

Home O1.5 33.3% 51.8% 1.93 -35.7%

Away O1.5 35.7% 29.9% 3.35 +19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

D 31% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartford A.0.8

Orange County1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTFORD A. · PPG 1.17

ORANGE COUNTY · PPG 1.78

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.78) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Hartford A. (H) 32.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -42.4%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +8.0%

Orange County (A) 36.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +43.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartford A. face Orange County in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, July 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartford A. a 32% chance, the draw 31% and Orange County 37%, so Orange County are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Hartford A. and 1.0 for Orange County (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartford A. are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.78 for Orange County. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +43.1%.

Hartford A. vs Orange County Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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