Today / USA - USL Championship / Sacramento R. vs Rhode Island

Sacramento R. vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 9, 2026, 02:30

Sacramento R.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rhode Island

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.5%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.9%1-112.7%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.6%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.3%3-13.8%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 48.8% 2.05 -18.8%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 33.5% 29.9% 3.35 +12.2%

Over 2.5 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Over 3.5 29.2% 27.0% 3.70 +4.8%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

Away O1.5 35.7% 33.3% 3.00 +7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1✓ 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sacramento R.1.3

Rhode Island1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SACRAMENTO R. · PPG 1.67

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Sacramento R. (H) 39.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -18.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

Rhode Island (A) 33.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sacramento R. face Rhode Island in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, July 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sacramento R. a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Rhode Island 34%, so Sacramento R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sacramento R. and 1.2 for Rhode Island (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sacramento R. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.20 for Rhode Island. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Sacramento R. vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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