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Mushuc Runa vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 19:10

Mushuc Runa

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

I. del Valle

PPG 2.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.7%0-26.4%0-34.1%0-4+3.0%1 1-05.1%1-19.7%1-29.2%1-35.9%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.0%2-26.6%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.3%3-23.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 25.6% 3.90 +26.8%

Draw 22.5% 29.0% 3.45 -13.4%

Away win 45.0% 52.6% 1.90 -14.5%

Over 2.5 64.0% 54.1% 1.85 +18.4%

Over 3.5 42.4% 30.8% 3.25 +37.8%

BTTS 63.2% 57.8% 1.73 +9.3%

Home O1.5 44.3% 32.3% 3.10 +37.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 51.8% 1.93 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.2%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mushuc Runa1.4

I. del Valle1.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 1.78

I. DEL VALLE · PPG 2.63

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.63) vs Home GOOD (1.78)

Win probability 1X2

Mushuc Runa (H) 32.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +26.8%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.4%

I. del Valle (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mushuc Runa face I. del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mushuc Runa a 33% chance, the draw 23% and I. del Valle 45%, so I. del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mushuc Runa and 1.9 for I. del Valle (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mushuc Runa are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 2.63 for I. del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Mushuc Runa vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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