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Emelec vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 23:10

Emelec

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barcelona SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-114.9%0-26.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.7%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.0%2-15.9%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.7%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 38.8% 2.58 -2.2%

Draw 32.4% 33.6% 2.98 -3.5%

Away win 29.7% 34.7% 2.88 -8.7%

Over 2.5 37.4% 40.8% 2.45 -8.4%

Over 3.5 17.7% 21.1% 4.75 -9.6%

BTTS 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Home O1.5 33.3% 35.1% 2.85 -5.1%

Away O1.5 21.2% 32.3% 3.10 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.5%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.7%

#4 0–1 14.9%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Emelec0.9

Barcelona SC0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EMELEC · PPG 1.89

BARCELONA SC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=37.9%

Win probability 1X2

Emelec (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -2.2%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -3.5%

Barcelona SC (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Emelec face Barcelona SC in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Emelec a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Barcelona SC 30%, so Emelec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Emelec and 0.8 for Barcelona SC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Emelec are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.00 for Barcelona SC.

Emelec vs Barcelona SC Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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