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Manta vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 17:00

Manta

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orense

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.1%0-116.6%0-29.7%0-33.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.0%1-113.0%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.3%2-15.1%2-23.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.1%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 35.7% 2.80 -10.6%

Draw 28.9% 31.7% 3.15 -5.4%

Away win 41.7% 39.7% 2.52 +5.1%

Over 2.5 47.2% 44.4% 2.25 +6.2%

Over 3.5 27.2% 23.8% 4.20 +8.5%

BTTS 48.4% 54.1% 1.85 -10.5%

Home O1.5 33.3% 34.7% 2.88 -4.1%

Away O1.5 35.7% 37.7% 2.65 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.4%

A 42% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–1 16.6%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–0 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta0.8

Orense1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA · PPG 0.88

ORENSE · PPG 1.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.88) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Manta (H) 29.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.6%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -5.4%

Orense (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta face Orense in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta a 29% chance, the draw 29% and Orense 42%, so Orense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Manta and 1.2 for Orense (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.25 for Orense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.5%.

Manta vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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