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Guayaquil City vs Delfin Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, July 11, 2026, 23:00

Guayaquil City

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Delfin

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.7%0-112.5%0-23.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.6%1-111.4%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.8%2-15.2%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.0%3-11.6%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 42.4% 2.36 +7.8%

Draw 30.7% 33.6% 2.98 -8.5%

Away win 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

Over 2.5 36.0% 37.0% 2.70 -2.8%

Over 3.5 17.6% 18.2% 5.50 -1.9%

BTTS 45.6% 46.5% 2.15 -2.0%

Home O1.5 33.3% 34.7% 2.88 -4.1%

Away O1.5 19.1% 27.0% 3.70 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.6%

H 46% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.7%

#2 1–0 21.6%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guayaquil City0.9

Delfin0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GUAYAQUIL CITY · PPG 1.13

DELFIN · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.13) > Away POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

Guayaquil City (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +7.8%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -8.5%

Delfin (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guayaquil City face Delfin in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, July 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guayaquil City a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Delfin 24%, so Guayaquil City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Guayaquil City and 0.5 for Delfin (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guayaquil City are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.38 for Delfin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Guayaquil City vs Delfin Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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