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Leones Norte vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 18 ·Friday, July 10, 2026, 22:00

Leones Norte

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

U. Catolica

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-113.3%0-26.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.4%1-113.5%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.3%2-16.9%2-23.2%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.5%3-12.3%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 29.0% 3.45 +41.4%

Draw 29.9% 29.9% 3.35 +0.1%

Away win 29.2% 48.1% 2.08 -23.6%

Over 2.5 44.2% 50.0% 2.00 -11.6%

Over 3.5 26.2% 28.2% 3.55 -4.2%

BTTS 48.4% 57.1% 1.75 -15.3%

Home O1.5 35.9% 33.3% 3.00 +7.7%

Away O1.5 25.0% 47.6% 2.10 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 121 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 14.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 41% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0✓ 14.4%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones Norte1.0

U. Catolica0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES NORTE · PPG 1.75

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.13

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Leones Norte (H) 41.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +41.4%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +0.1%

U. Catolica (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones Norte face U. Catolica in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones Norte a 41% chance, the draw 30% and U. Catolica 29%, so Leones Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Leones Norte and 0.9 for U. Catolica (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones Norte are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.13 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Leones Norte vs U. Catolica Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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