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U. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 17 ·Monday, July 6, 2026, 21:30

U. Catolica

PPG 2.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mushuc Runa

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-14.1%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.2%1-18.9%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-16.7%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-15.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 65.4% 1.53 -9.6%

Draw 21.6% 24.4% 4.10 -6.9%

Away win 19.4% 17.2% 5.80 +7.5%

Over 2.5 54.8% 58.8% 1.70 -6.8%

Over 3.5 35.1% 35.7% 2.80 -1.7%

BTTS 52.8% 57.1% 1.75 -7.6%

Home O1.5 61.2% 63.7% 1.57 -3.9%

Away O1.5 22.5% 26.7% 3.75 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -3.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.8%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 8.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica2.1

Mushuc Runa0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 2.13

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 0.29

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -9.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.9%

Mushuc Runa (A) 19.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face Mushuc Runa in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Monday, July 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Mushuc Runa 19%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for U. Catolica and 0.7 for Mushuc Runa (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.29 for Mushuc Runa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.5%.

U. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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