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Figueirense vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, July 13, 2026, 23:30

Figueirense

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Volta Redonda

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-110.2%0-24.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.3%1-112.8%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-18.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 51.3% 1.95 -7.0%

Draw 28.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

Away win 23.7% 25.3% 3.95 -3.8%

Over 2.5 45.0% 42.6% 2.35 +5.8%

Over 3.5 25.0% 23.1% 4.33 +5.0%

BTTS 48.4% 52.4% 1.91 -7.6%

Home O1.5 40.6% 40.0% 2.50 +1.5%

Away O1.5 21.2% 26.7% 3.75 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -41.1%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.0%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Figueirense1.3

Volta Redonda0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.17

VOLTA REDONDA · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Figueirense (H) 47.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -7.0%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.5%

Volta Redonda (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Figueirense face Volta Redonda in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, July 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Figueirense a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Volta Redonda 24%, so Figueirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Figueirense and 0.8 for Volta Redonda (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Figueirense are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.50 for Volta Redonda. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.8%.

Figueirense vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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