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Barra FC vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 14:00

Barra FC

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santa Cruz

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-113.7%0-26.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.0%1-113.5%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.4%2-16.6%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.2%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% — — —

Draw 31.6% — — —

Away win 31.0% — — —

Over 2.5 38.3% — — —

Over 3.5 21.0% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 35.9% — — —

Away O1.5 23.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -47.6%

Bet Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barra FC1.0

Santa Cruz0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRA FC · PPG 1.17

SANTA CRUZ · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.17) vs Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Barra FC (H) 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santa Cruz (A) 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Barra FC face Santa Cruz in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barra FC a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Santa Cruz 31%, so Barra FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Barra FC and 0.9 for Santa Cruz (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barra FC are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.57 for Santa Cruz.

Barra FC vs Santa Cruz Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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