Today / Brazil - Serie C / Maranhao vs Ypiranga

Maranhao vs Ypiranga Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:00

Maranhao

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ypiranga

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-111.8%0-25.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.3%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.6%2-17.5%2-23.3%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-12.8%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 43.5% 2.30 -7.1%

Draw 31.1% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Away win 28.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.7%

Over 2.5 38.3% 42.6% 2.35 -10.0%

Over 3.5 19.1% 23.1% 4.33 -10.4%

BTTS 48.4% 51.8% 1.93 -6.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 39.2% 2.55 -8.5%

Away O1.5 23.2% 32.3% 3.10 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -47.6%

Bet Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.5%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maranhao1.1

Ypiranga0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARANHAO · PPG 1.33

YPIRANGA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Maranhao (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -7.1%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.7%

Ypiranga (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maranhao face Ypiranga in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maranhao a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Ypiranga 28%, so Maranhao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Maranhao and 0.9 for Ypiranga (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maranhao are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Ypiranga.

Maranhao vs Ypiranga Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions