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Anapolis vs Maringa Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 19:00

Anapolis

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maringa

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.9%0-25.9%0-33.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.1%1-110.4%1-28.8%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.8%2-26.6%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.3%3-13.9%3-23.3%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 32.3% 3.10 +9.1%

Draw 23.8% 30.3% 3.30 -12.9%

Away win 41.1% 47.6% 2.10 -13.7%

Over 2.5 62.6% 55.6% 1.80 +12.7%

Over 3.5 39.9% 33.3% 3.00 +19.7%

BTTS 62.4% 61.7% 1.62 +1.1%

Home O1.5 45.2% 39.2% 2.55 +15.3%

Away O1.5 50.2% 50.0% 2.00 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -47.6%

Bet Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.4%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anapolis1.5

Maringa1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ANAPOLIS · PPG 1.33

MARINGA · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Anapolis (H) 35.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +9.1%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.9%

Maringa (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anapolis face Maringa in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anapolis a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Maringa 41%, so Maringa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Anapolis and 1.7 for Maringa (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anapolis are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Maringa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.7%.

Anapolis vs Maringa Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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