Today / Brazil - Serie C / Botafogo PB vs Confianca

Botafogo PB vs Confianca Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 12, 2026, 22:30

Botafogo PB

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Confianca

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.2%0-18.5%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.0%1-111.0%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-17.1%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.9%3-13.1%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 54.1% 1.85 -1.8%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 19.7% 25.0% 4.00 -12.7%

Over 2.5 40.6% 45.5% 2.20 -10.7%

Over 3.5 23.2% 23.8% 4.20 -1.5%

BTTS 46.5% 51.3% 1.95 -9.3%

Home O1.5 41.2% 47.6% 2.10 -13.5%

Away O1.5 19.1% 26.7% 3.75 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -47.6%

Bet Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.5%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.0%

#2 0–0 16.2%

#3 2–0 13.6%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo PB1.3

Confianca0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 2.00

CONFIANCA · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=53.1%

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo PB (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Confianca (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo PB face Confianca in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo PB a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Confianca 20%, so Botafogo PB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Botafogo PB and 0.5 for Confianca (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo PB are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.17 for Confianca.

Botafogo PB vs Confianca Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions