Today / Brazil - Serie C / Itabaiana vs Brusque

Itabaiana vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 14 ·Monday, July 13, 2026, 22:30

Itabaiana

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brusque

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-111.8%0-28.3%0-33.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.8%2-16.8%2-24.8%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 41.7% 2.40 -23.2%

Draw 26.9% 35.1% 2.85 -14.0%

Away win 41.1% 33.3% 3.00 +23.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 42.0% 2.38 +18.8%

Over 3.5 29.2% 23.1% 4.33 +15.9%

BTTS 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Home O1.5 35.9% 36.4% 2.75 -1.3%

Away O1.5 38.4% 29.4% 3.40 +30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 64 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -41.1%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 8.9%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itabaiana1.1

Brusque1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ITABAIANA · PPG 0.83

BRUSQUE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Itabaiana (H) 32.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -23.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -14.0%

Brusque (A) 41.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Itabaiana face Brusque in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, July 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itabaiana a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Brusque 41%, so Brusque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Itabaiana and 1.4 for Brusque (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itabaiana are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Brusque. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +30.6%.

Itabaiana vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions