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Itabaiana vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Itabaiana

PPG 0.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brusque

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-111.8%0-28.4%0-34.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.8%1-112.6%1-29.0%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.7%2-16.7%2-24.8%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 41.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 35.9% — — —

Away O1.5 38.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -47.1%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.3%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itabaiana1.1

Brusque1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ITABAIANA · PPG 0.83

BRUSQUE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.83), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Itabaiana (H) 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brusque (A) 41.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Itabaiana face Brusque in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, July 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itabaiana a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Brusque 41%, so Brusque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Itabaiana and 1.4 for Brusque (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itabaiana are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.00 for Brusque.

Itabaiana vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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